Revisionism: China's Danger to the Far Eastern Powers

China Rising

Human Events today released a short summary of a larger report on China.  America and the world's other Great Powers face serious implications if it continues to follow the Western European path to global irrelevance as China constructs a neo-fascist system.

Small nations on China's periphery have the most to fear.  South Korea only exists as long as the United States retains the will to defend it.  The same goes for the Nationalist Chinese government on Taiwan.  The war in the 1960s and 70s not withstanding, Communist Vietnam is revisiting its much older historical fear of Chinese hegemony.  All of these states at one time lived under Chinese overlordship and likely remain parts of the Middle Kingdom's long term plans.  Outside of this realm sits the former American colony of the Republic of the Philippines. 

China has carefully fomented border squabbles with its smaller neighbors and Japan over islands off its coast.

Japan, India, and Russia are the three major powers in the region.  China and Japan perpetuate a mutual hatred that includes atrocities committed by the Japanese during World War II.  No possibility of accommodation exists between the two nations, other than complete Japanese subservience.  Japan currently is constitutionally limited to small defensive forces and claims to have no nuclear weapons.  It is difficult to believe that a nation who has suffered two atomic attacks and has a hostile relationship with nearby nuclear neighbors lacks a few secret weapons of its own.  India's relationship with China has also been historically problematic.

Russia currently has good relations with Beijing and strong economic ties.  Potential trouble between the two nations comes in the form of Russia's Maritime Province.  This territory is home to 2 million people and one of Russia's major ports, Vladivostok.  Russia seized this land from China in the 1800s and the latter has long term plans to reacquire it.  Revanchism drove an aggressive French nationalism leading up to World War I.  China has not closed out its nationalist plans to get back its old territories.

For decades, the United States has played regional referee.  China has been balanced by Japan, South Korea, and sometimes Russia.  As nations perceive that U. S. power is declining, there is motivation for some to step into the void.  The question is, will there continue to be a balance, or will the regional nations acquiesce in Chinese hegemony?  That is likely an impossibility.

China itself is less stable than it appears.  Historically a rising middle class that has no political voice in the national direction is an extremely destabilizing element.  The American colonies in 1775, the 1787 French Revolution, the European revolutions of 1848, the Russian rebellions of 1905, all came at least partly from a middle class that perceived that it was under the thumb of national government.  China has rage beneath its stoic surface that can be dangerous in several ways.

1.)  It can push China into more expressions of nationalism to unify the people to the government.  Austria Hungary and the Russian Empire followed this path before World War I, and ended up playing a strong role in bringing about the wider war.

2.)  It can cause a revolution that can lead to . . . what?  The best case scenario is that the mainland simply transplants the Nationalist government from Taipei.  A new Republic of China with a free market system could be a huge boost to efforts for global peace and stability.  Worst case scenario is a Chinese Napoleon determined to get back Chinese irredenta (lost lands)

One should never forget that the Chinese have a political philosophy much like the Declaration of Independence.  Their "Mandate of Heaven" calls for rejection of a regime when "heaven" dictates that it is no longer a good government for the people.

Any Chinese war of aggression, even against Vietnam, will bring in the United States.  We are still too close to the memory of Hitler's nudges towards hegemony in the 1930s to have forgotten the lessons.  Even Obama cannot afford to be a Chamberlain.  Steps taken to boost U. S. forces in the region are a positive sign.  The nations that cannot afford to forget include Russia and India.