A common theme among the great nations in history is upheaval. Great nations are established, then led by great men or women. Then comes the corrupt, negligent, overly wrathful, or simply bad. The people suffer, the social systems break down, and the leaders remain unable or unwilling to make the changes necessary to right the ship. King Ahab, King Zhou of Shang, and King George III among others all found the divine recruited against their ways. All found decisive defeat as a result.
America's Declaration of Independence appealed equally to Nature's God and "the opinions of mankind" to justify separation from the realm of His Majesty George III and Parliament. China has many of its own examples of poor leadership in history, the most egregious being its version of Caligula, a degenerate known as King Zhou of Shang. When a government is no longer of positive use, heaven itself will reject it for the sake of the people. This powerful undercurrent lies beneath the political culture of the planet's two most powerful nations. The U.S. appeases this demand through regular elections. China's system has no such release, and this forms a major threat to the system.
China's mandate of heaven philosophy dates back to the time of Confucious. It has four major tenets:
1) Heaven grants the emperor the right to rule,
2) Since there is only one Heaven, there can only be one emperor at any given time,
3) The emperor's virtue determines his right to rule, and,
4) No one dynasty has a permanent right to rule.
Over the past decade, China has impressed observers with its apparent economic growth. They built the world's tallest building, connected high ridges with the world's longest bridges, and in the past year, built a 30 story building from prefabricated parts in 15 days. Communist China, however, remains the same nation that saw the bloody repression of basic liberties at Tienanmen Square 25 years ago.
Some of the closest Western observers have gone bearish on China's prospects. The blog ChinaGeeks.com noted that air pollution in major cities, notably the capital of Beijing, has risen substantially and contributed to a 60% rise in cancer rates. One writer, filmmaker Charlie Custer says about food safety, "Things have simply gotten to the point that it’s impossible to feel confident that what you’re eating is healthy, or even real, unless you’re on a farm." Strangely enough, this includes reports of not only inedible pork, but also exploding watermelons.
Basic problems of health and safety go hand in hand with a regime both increasingly oppressive at home and belligerent abroad. Failed defector Wang Lijun received a 15 year sentence for trying to escape to the United States. A British national, Mark Kitto was quoted by Bloomberg Businessweek saying “One day they are going to run out of money, and run out of soldiers and police" to curb discontent.
Meanwhile China remains bent on escalating its problems with neighboring countries. It deployed its first aircraft carrier, currently known as Number 16, in the face of territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The Japanese government reasserted its hundred year old ownership of one island group while Vietnam's National Assembly passed an act establishing a claim to islands seized by China from South Vietnam in 1974.
This comes at a dangerous point. China's leadership has grown factionalized and there could be a coming conflict between conservative bureaucrats and more nationalists hard-liners.
In China, however, the main issue is the population itself. Historically, when nations with authoritarian systems also have rising middle classes, they usually must liberalize or face revolution. The Communist system in China also faces the people's anger over environmental issues. Air pollution is most visible, but China also has severe issues with its groundwater. Three years ago, CBS News discovered a gigantic open dump in the southern part of the country where deadly dioxin had been leaching into the ground for years.
Just as Gorbachev's response to Chernobyl helped to usher the Soviet Union into the dustbin of history. China's increasing oppression of liberty, unhealthy environment, and foreign brinksmanship could turn discontent into open rebellion. The mandate of heaven principle lies in wait for the people to flock to its cause.
After revolution, however, then what? The best case scenario lies in a simple transfer of the Taiwanese Nationalist China government to Beijing, loosely mimicking the unification of Germany in the 1990s. Worst case scenario is an aggressive nationalist dictatorship ready to confront Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, India, Japan, and even Russia and the United States. The goal would be regional hegemony. Only demonstrations of strength and resolve can maintain peace in the face of such a development. Even then, war may be inevitable.
Even as violence once again threatens to engulf the Middle East, American policy makers can not afford to ignore China.
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